Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs McLeod 52.1% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 84.2%
Defensive zone
Mercer 71.1%
Neutral zone
Mercer 77.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 82.6%
82.6%
17.4%
Mercer
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Mercer
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
3
Mercer
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Mercer
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
52.9% (904)
-11.9%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
57.6% (59)
-21.9%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
49.0% (241)
-12.6%
On power play, McLeod has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Mercer shoots right. McLeod is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Home / Away
Mercer
McLeod
Home
45.2% (126)
51.8% (612)
Away
35.1% (111)
52.9% (592)
By Period
Mercer
McLeod
P1
34.5%
55.4%
P2
43.4%
50.8%
P3
45.8%
51.6%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 12:26 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 07:05 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |