Scouting Report
Ryan Strome holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 46.3% vs Strome 46.8% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 50.9%
Defensive zone
Strome 54.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 53.4%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Mercer
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Mercer
Strome
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Strome
1
2
Mercer
Strome
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (241)
46.4% (371)
-2.8%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
43.3% (97)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
70.0% (10)
55.6% (18)
+14.4%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Mercer is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Mercer shoots right. Strome is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (147).
Home / Away
Mercer
Strome
Home
41.7% (120)
47.6% (225)
Away
47.6% (145)
44.8% (261)
By Period
Mercer
Strome
P1
44.6%
45.4%
P2
45.4%
47.6%
P3
45.2%
45.2%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024 | 1 | 01:28 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 3 | 04:01 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 1 | 08:51 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |