Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 35.8% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 42.2% vs Couturier 53.4% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 77.7%
Defensive zone
Couturier 66.1%
Neutral zone
Mercer 63.5%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Mercer
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Mercer
Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Couturier
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Mercer
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Mercer
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
39.0% (254)
52.6% (624)
-13.6%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
66.7% (66)
-38.1%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (9)
53.2% (188)
+2.4%
On power play, Couturier has a +38.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Mercer is 35.8% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Mercer shoots right. Couturier is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (297).
Home / Away
Mercer
Couturier
Home
34.1% (126)
50.7% (424)
Away
43.8% (144)
56.6% (454)
By Period
Mercer
Couturier
P1
31.3%
55.5%
P2
44.0%
51.7%
P3
43.7%
55.2%
Final 5 min
35.4%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Couturier
46.0%▼
47.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:38 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:20 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 06:30 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |