Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Couturier 53.2% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 80.6%
Defensive zone
Couturier 68.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 63.7%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Mercer
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Mercer
Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Couturier
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Mercer
Couturier
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Mercer
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
53.4% (758)
-14.6%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
62.9% (70)
-27.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
50.7% (227)
-0.7%
On power play, Couturier has a +27.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Couturier is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
Mercer
Couturier
Home
34.7% (144)
50.7% (517)
Away
43.2% (146)
56.1% (538)
By Period
Mercer
Couturier
P1
32.7%
55.2%
P2
42.7%
53.0%
P3
42.2%
53.3%
Final 5 min
39.2%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:38 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:20 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 06:30 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |