Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Couturier 55.6% (-15.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Couturier 75.9%
Defensive zone
Couturier 72.3%
Neutral zone
Couturier 70.0%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 72.0%
28.0%
72.0%
Mercer
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Mercer
Couturier
Last 9: Mercer 5-4 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
0
1
Mercer
Couturier
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
2
Mercer
Couturier
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Couturier
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
55.1% (1,008)
-14.1%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
64.1% (142)
-28.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
53.3% (45)
-16.9%
On power play, Couturier has a +28.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Mercer shoots right. Couturier is 57.5% vs right-shot opponents (405).
Home / Away
Mercer
Couturier
Home
45.2% (126)
58.1% (609)
Away
35.1% (111)
53.9% (586)
By Period
Mercer
Couturier
P1
34.5%
55.3%
P2
43.4%
55.8%
P3
45.8%
57.4%
OT
0.0%
45.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
40.5%
Couturier
46.0%▼
47.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:14 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 06:12 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:33 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:00 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 17:52 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 01:01 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 09:12 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:30 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:01 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |