Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Monahan 51.3% (-12.1%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 84.8%
Defensive zone
Mercer 84.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 82.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 83.0%
83.0%
17.0%
Mercer
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Mercer
Monahan
Last 10: Mercer 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Mercer
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
5
Mercer
Monahan
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
51.1% (11,356)
-12.0%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
53.7% (2,580)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
46.0% (766)
-6.0%
On power play, Monahan has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Home / Away
Mercer
Monahan
Home
40.0% (755)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
38.5% (792)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Mercer
Monahan
P1
38.2%
50.9%
P2
39.2%
51.7%
P3
41.1%
51.0%
OT
0.0%
53.5%
Final 5 min
39.6%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:14 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:41 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:47 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 1 | 18:03 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 2 | 10:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 1 | 09:03 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |