Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +16.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Mercer wins 40.2% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 43.3% vs Crosby 56.6% (-16.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 61.9%
Defensive zone
Mercer 74.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 76.8%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Mercer
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Mercer
Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Mercer
Crosby
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
3
Mercer
Crosby
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
41.0% (212)
56.2% (1,451)
-15.2%
Power Play
35.7% (14)
61.4% (293)
-25.7%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
55.3% (38)
-18.9%
On power play, Crosby has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Mercer shoots right. Crosby is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (618).
Home / Away
Mercer
Crosby
Home
45.2% (126)
59.1% (939)
Away
35.1% (111)
54.7% (843)
By Period
Mercer
Crosby
P1
34.5%
54.9%
P2
43.4%
60.8%
P3
45.8%
55.4%
OT
0.0%
53.6%
Final 5 min
47.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:20 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |