Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +16.9% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Crosby 55.5% (-16.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 68.3%
Defensive zone
Mercer 70.9%
Neutral zone
Mercer 77.1%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
Mercer
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Mercer
Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Mercer
Crosby
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Mercer
Crosby
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Mercer
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
53.7% (984)
-14.9%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
64.7% (241)
-29.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
64.3% (14)
-14.3%
On power play, Crosby has a +29.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Crosby is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (360).
Home / Away
Mercer
Crosby
Home
34.7% (144)
56.9% (649)
Away
43.2% (146)
54.9% (590)
By Period
Mercer
Crosby
P1
32.7%
55.8%
P2
42.7%
53.2%
P3
42.2%
58.7%
Final 5 min
39.2%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:46 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |