Dawson Mercer vs Steven Stamkos
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 77.9%
Defensive zone
Mercer 77.3%
Neutral zone
Mercer 76.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Mercer
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Mercer
Stamkos
Last 7: Mercer 2-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Mercer
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Mercer
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
50.4% (9,799)
-11.3%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
55.1% (1,725)
-14.0%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (45)
49.7% (825)
-9.7%
On power play, Stamkos has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Mercer is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (448).
Mercer shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
Mercer
Stamkos
Home
40.0% (755)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
38.5% (792)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Mercer
Stamkos
P1
38.2%
49.1%
P2
39.2%
52.7%
P3
41.1%
50.9%
OT
0.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
39.6%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 10:36 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 02:49 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 08:59 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 01:02 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 04:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |