Dawson Mercer vs Steven Stamkos
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 40.0% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 76.3%
Defensive zone
Mercer 77.3%
Neutral zone
Mercer 76.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Mercer
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Mercer
Stamkos
Last 7: Mercer 2-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Mercer
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Mercer
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,403)
50.4% (9,711)
-11.3%
Power Play
41.3% (80)
55.1% (1,709)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (44)
49.7% (819)
-8.8%
On power play, Stamkos has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Mercer is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Mercer shoots right. Stamkos is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (3,564).
Home / Away
Mercer
Stamkos
Home
40.0% (737)
52.7% (6,198)
Away
38.6% (790)
49.2% (6,067)
By Period
Mercer
Stamkos
P1
38.0%
49.1%
P2
39.3%
52.8%
P3
41.3%
50.8%
OT
0.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
39.0%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
37.5%
39.3%
Stamkos
56.0%▬
56.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 10:36 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 02:49 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 08:59 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 01:02 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 04:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |