Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +23.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 53.5% vs Hayes 38.9% (+23.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 71.3%
Defensive zone
Ryan 80.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 82.7%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 82.1%
82.1%
17.9%
Ryan
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Ryan
Hayes
Last 6: Ryan 4-2 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
1
Ryan
Hayes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
61.1% (54)
35.4% (362)
+25.7%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
52.9% (17)
-12.9%
On even strength, Ryan has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (46).
Ryan shoots right. Hayes is 33.1% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Ryan
Hayes
Home
61.5% (26)
36.8% (212)
Away
57.6% (33)
34.9% (169)
By Period
Ryan
Hayes
P1
70.8%
40.3%
P2
50.0%
31.1%
P3
52.9%
34.2%
Final 5 min
50.0%
29.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
59.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
36.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 2 | 17:18 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 31, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |