Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 20 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Hayes 47.7% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 23-18 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 61.7%
Defensive zone
Hayes 64.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 65.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 64.4%
35.6%
64.4%
Ryan
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
23
(41 meetings)
18
23
Ryan
Hayes
Last 10: Ryan 2-8 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
5
6
Ryan
Hayes
11 total
Defensive Zone
Even
5
5
Ryan
Hayes
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
8
12
Ryan
Hayes
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
47.5% (6,708)
+9.1%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
51.7% (702)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
45.3% (697)
+2.5%
On even strength, Ryan has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Home / Away
Ryan
Hayes
Home
56.2% (2,559)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Ryan
Hayes
P1
55.1%
47.5%
P2
54.7%
47.6%
P3
56.0%
47.9%
OT
58.3%
54.1%
Final 5 min
52.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2024 | 3 | 17:18 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 2 | 12:42 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 2 | 05:32 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:34 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 18:18 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 3 | 16:01 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 14:33 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 10:32 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 07:34 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 07:30 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 04:32 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 15, 2019 | 2 | 01:19 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 16, 2019 | 1 | 14:01 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |