Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Hayes 56.3% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 72.9%
Defensive zone
Ryan 76.2%
Neutral zone
Ryan 52.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Ryan
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Ryan
Hayes
Last 6: Ryan 2-4 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Hayes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
2
Ryan
Hayes
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Ryan
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
56.6% (724)
+4.2%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
57.0% (79)
+43.0%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
65.7% (35)
-19.5%
On power play, Ryan has a +43.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Ryan
Hayes
Home
56.7% (201)
58.0% (405)
Away
54.8% (208)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Ryan
Hayes
P1
56.7%
54.7%
P2
56.8%
55.7%
P3
53.7%
60.2%
Final 5 min
56.1%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2024 | 3 | 17:18 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 2 | 12:42 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 2 | 05:32 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |