Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 55.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+10.5%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 69.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 75.0%
Neutral zone
Ryan 52.6%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Ryan
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
45.8% (755)
+14.4%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
48.3% (60)
-19.7%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
27.6% (29)
+15.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ryan is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (142).
Ryan shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Ryan
MacKinnon
Home
56.7% (254)
49.5% (396)
Away
55.0% (258)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Ryan
MacKinnon
P1
56.9%
50.2%
P2
51.7%
43.8%
P3
59.2%
41.4%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.6%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%