Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.4% vs Roy 47.9% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 75.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 73.0%
Neutral zone
Roy 72.5%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 73.8%
26.2%
73.8%
Ryan
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Ryan
Roy
Last 5: Ryan 1-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Ryan
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
Ryan
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
61.4% (220)
48.6% (679)
+12.8%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
48.0% (50)
+52.0%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
34.7% (49)
+17.0%
On power play, Ryan has a +52.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Ryan is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (56).
Ryan shoots right. Roy is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Home / Away
Ryan
Roy
Home
64.2% (137)
49.3% (345)
Away
55.8% (113)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Ryan
Roy
P1
58.9%
47.6%
P2
62.8%
47.1%
P3
59.3%
47.9%
Final 5 min
51.6%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
60.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 02:11 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 17:06 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 16:52 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |