Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Roy 48.4% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 51.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 58.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 51.7%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Ryan
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Ryan
Roy
Last 9: Ryan 4-5 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ryan
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
2
Ryan
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
48.7% (3,719)
+7.9%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
49.5% (283)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
45.5% (477)
+2.3%
On even strength, Ryan has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Home / Away
Ryan
Roy
Home
56.2% (2,559)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Ryan
Roy
P1
55.1%
50.8%
P2
54.7%
46.3%
P3
56.0%
48.1%
OT
58.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.5%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 02:11 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 17:06 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 16:52 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 11:33 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 2 | 04:39 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |