Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 54.8%). Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Zacha 54.4% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 87.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 79.9%
Neutral zone
Ryan 53.5%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 65.7%
34.3%
65.7%
Ryan
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Ryan
Zacha
Last 5: Ryan 1-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
3
Ryan
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Ryan
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
53.9% (787)
+6.9%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
63.2% (193)
+36.8%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
44.3% (88)
+1.9%
On power play, Ryan has a +36.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Home / Away
Ryan
Zacha
Home
56.7% (201)
56.7% (538)
Away
54.8% (208)
52.8% (530)
By Period
Ryan
Zacha
P1
56.7%
52.6%
P2
56.8%
54.8%
P3
53.7%
56.8%
Final 5 min
56.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 12:10 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 01:39 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 02:05 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:05 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |