Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Zacha 49.1% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 61.9%
Defensive zone
Ryan 85.6%
Neutral zone
Ryan 84.3%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
Ryan
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
Ryan
Zacha
Last 10: Ryan 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Ryan
Zacha
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
5
2
Ryan
Zacha
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Ryan
Zacha
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
48.9% (5,102)
+7.7%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
55.6% (804)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
42.2% (555)
+5.6%
On even strength, Ryan has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,539).
Home / Away
Ryan
Zacha
Home
56.2% (2,559)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Ryan
Zacha
P1
55.1%
49.9%
P2
54.7%
49.2%
P3
56.0%
48.1%
OT
58.3%
53.1%
Final 5 min
52.5%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 12:10 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 09:53 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 01:39 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 02:05 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:05 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 31, 2021 | 2 | 13:48 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 3 | 19:40 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 3 | 17:33 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 3 | 01:26 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 2 | 19:46 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 2, 2018 | 3 | 13:05 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 2, 2018 | 2 | 04:50 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 18, 2018 | 3 | 16:13 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 18, 2018 | 3 | 16:06 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 18, 2018 | 1 | 08:09 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 3 | 16:57 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 3 | 12:24 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 3 | 05:17 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |