Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Johnson 49.7% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 74.9%
Defensive zone
Ryan 91.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 89.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 91.1%
91.1%
8.9%
Ryan
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
2
(12 meetings)
10
2
Ryan
Johnson
Last 10: Ryan 8-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
8
2
Ryan
Johnson
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Johnson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
49.8% (5,396)
+6.8%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
54.6% (885)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
42.3% (707)
+5.5%
On even strength, Ryan has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Johnson is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,203).
Home / Away
Ryan
Johnson
Home
56.2% (2,559)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Ryan
Johnson
P1
55.1%
50.1%
P2
54.7%
50.6%
P3
56.0%
48.4%
OT
58.3%
42.5%
Final 5 min
52.5%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2020 | 2 | 02:00 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 2 | 05:54 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 2 | 19:12 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 1 | 06:13 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 1, 2017 | 3 | 15:18 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2017 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2017 | 2 | 05:33 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2017 | 2 | 01:49 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 4, 2016 | 3 | 06:36 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 4, 2016 | 2 | 03:56 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 2 | 17:53 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 1 | 05:45 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |