Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Trocheck on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 20 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Trocheck 54.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Trocheck leads 22-16 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Trocheck 57.2%
Defensive zone
Ryan 55.4%
Neutral zone
Ryan 58.7%
Result
Vincent Trocheck favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Ryan
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
22
(38 meetings)
16
22
Ryan
Trocheck
Last 10: Ryan 4-6 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
7
13
Ryan
Trocheck
20 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Ryan
Trocheck
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Ryan
Trocheck
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
53.7% (10,904)
+2.9%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
60.8% (1,856)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
49.6% (1,461)
-1.8%
On power play, Trocheck has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Trocheck is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (4,336).
Home / Away
Ryan
Trocheck
Home
56.2% (2,559)
56.3% (7,114)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
52.2% (7,107)
By Period
Ryan
Trocheck
P1
55.1%
54.1%
P2
54.7%
54.7%
P3
56.0%
54.0%
OT
58.3%
52.1%
Final 5 min
52.5%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:01 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 12:44 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 01:17 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 04:09 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 2 | 12:16 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 1 | 18:27 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 12:46 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 10:13 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 10:06 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 15:57 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 01:27 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 14:55 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 3 | 15:27 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 2 | 14:18 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 2 | 01:08 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 7, 2017 | 3 | 12:13 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 7, 2017 | 3 | 09:29 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 7, 2017 | 3 | 09:15 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |