Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Cozens 52.9% (-14.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 54.7%
Defensive zone
Cozens 59.1%
Neutral zone
Cozens 51.8%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Mercer
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Mercer
Cozens
Last 8: Mercer 4-4 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
Mercer
Cozens
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Cozens
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
2
Mercer
Cozens
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
52.6% (606)
-13.8%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
58.5% (94)
-23.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
33.3% (6)
+16.7%
On power play, Cozens has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Mercer is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (100).
Mercer shoots right. Cozens is 52.3% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Home / Away
Mercer
Cozens
Home
34.7% (144)
54.1% (375)
Away
43.2% (146)
52.3% (331)
By Period
Mercer
Cozens
P1
32.7%
55.8%
P2
42.7%
50.6%
P3
42.2%
53.7%
Final 5 min
39.2%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 12:24 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:37 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 04:29 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:23 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:08 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 17:59 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:43 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |