Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.3% vs 52.6%). Look for Cozens on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Cozens wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 52.9% vs Larkin 52.4% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Cozens leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Cozens 61.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 68.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Cozens
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Cozens
Larkin
Last 10: Cozens 8-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
0
Cozens
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
4
2
Cozens
Larkin
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
1
Cozens
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (606)
51.7% (878)
+0.9%
Power Play
58.5% (94)
58.5% (246)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
48.2% (166)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Cozens is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (534).
Cozens shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
Cozens
Larkin
Home
54.1% (375)
52.4% (647)
Away
52.3% (331)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Cozens
Larkin
P1
55.8%
52.2%
P2
50.6%
53.1%
P3
53.7%
51.7%
OT
40.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
50.7%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | OT | 00:37 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 17:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 1 | 16:56 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 13:57 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 17:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 11:17 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |