Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cozens wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 46.1% vs McCarron 53.4% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 75.5%
Defensive zone
McCarron 62.6%
Neutral zone
Cozens 53.1%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Cozens
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Cozens
McCarron
Last 7: Cozens 3-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
2
Cozens
McCarron
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Cozens
McCarron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (746)
57.5% (308)
-11.9%
Power Play
50.8% (65)
50.0% (2)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
32.6% (43)
+1.9%
On even strength, McCarron has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Cozens is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Cozens shoots right. McCarron is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (130).
Home / Away
Cozens
McCarron
Home
43.9% (410)
48.3% (147)
Away
47.2% (430)
58.7% (206)
By Period
Cozens
McCarron
P1
46.4%
53.4%
P2
41.6%
59.5%
P3
49.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.6%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 08:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 02:22 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 1 | 02:14 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 18:46 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:18 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 09:34 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |