Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cozens on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Cozens wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 45.9% vs McCarron 52.8% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 54.6%
Defensive zone
McCarron 76.1%
Neutral zone
McCarron 65.1%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 68.3%
31.7%
68.3%
Cozens
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Cozens
McCarron
Last 7: Cozens 4-3 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cozens
McCarron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
3
2
Cozens
McCarron
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (786)
54.5% (618)
-7.8%
Power Play
43.9% (171)
42.1% (19)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (189)
35.3% (34)
+7.0%
On even strength, McCarron has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Cozens is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (313).
Cozens shoots right. McCarron is 58.7% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Cozens
McCarron
Home
46.2% (567)
52.2% (339)
Away
44.9% (579)
54.2% (332)
By Period
Cozens
McCarron
P1
46.5%
53.5%
P2
46.5%
50.6%
P3
44.2%
55.9%
Final 5 min
42.9%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 06:43 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:14 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 03:20 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 16:15 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 3, 2023 | 2 | 06:30 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |