Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.3% vs 52.8%). Look for Cozens on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 52.9% vs McCarron 52.5% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 88.7%
Defensive zone
McCarron 80.9%
Neutral zone
McCarron 50.5%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Cozens
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Cozens
McCarron
Last 8: Cozens 4-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
McCarron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
2
Cozens
McCarron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
3
2
Cozens
McCarron
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (606)
53.1% (672)
-0.5%
Power Play
58.5% (94)
18.2% (11)
+40.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
53.7% (205)
-20.4%
On power play, Cozens has a +40.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Cozens is 52.3% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Cozens shoots right. McCarron is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (265).
Home / Away
Cozens
McCarron
Home
54.1% (375)
52.8% (477)
Away
52.3% (331)
52.8% (411)
By Period
Cozens
McCarron
P1
55.8%
56.5%
P2
50.6%
53.2%
P3
53.7%
49.0%
OT
40.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 12:51 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:07 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 08:19 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:13 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:58 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |