Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.6% vs 45.4%). Cozens wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 46.1% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 57.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 53.9%
Neutral zone
Cozens 52.4%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Cozens
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Cozens
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cozens
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (746)
45.8% (755)
-0.2%
Power Play
50.8% (65)
48.3% (60)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
27.6% (29)
+6.9%
On penalty kill, Cozens has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Cozens is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Cozens shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Cozens
MacKinnon
Home
43.9% (410)
49.5% (396)
Away
47.2% (430)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Cozens
MacKinnon
P1
46.4%
50.2%
P2
41.6%
43.8%
P3
49.4%
41.4%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.0%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2022 | 1 | 03:35 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 1 | 00:21 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |