Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 49.9%). Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 50.6% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Cozens leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 54.7%
Defensive zone
Cozens 53.1%
Neutral zone
Cozens 50.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Cozens
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
9
(19 meetings)
10
9
Cozens
MacKinnon
Last 10: Cozens 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
3
Cozens
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
3
2
Cozens
MacKinnon
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
5
4
Cozens
MacKinnon
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (891)
49.2% (1,266)
+2.2%
Power Play
50.5% (184)
54.9% (193)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (85)
49.1% (55)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Cozens is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Cozens shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Cozens
MacKinnon
Home
49.5% (638)
50.9% (740)
Away
51.9% (522)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Cozens
MacKinnon
P1
51.9%
50.9%
P2
46.4%
51.8%
P3
54.2%
47.1%
OT
16.7%
58.8%
Final 5 min
48.0%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
50.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:35 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 19:10 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 12:43 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:17 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:04 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 08:10 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 05:45 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:15 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 10:57 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 17:03 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 16:59 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |