Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.5% vs 46.2%). Look for Cozens on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cozens wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 45.9% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 50.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 54.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Cozens
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Cozens
MacKinnon
Last 8: Cozens 7-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cozens
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
4
0
Cozens
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
0
Cozens
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (786)
45.5% (1,190)
+1.2%
Power Play
43.9% (171)
56.4% (94)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (189)
40.0% (30)
+2.3%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Cozens is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (313).
Cozens shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Cozens
MacKinnon
Home
46.2% (567)
47.8% (670)
Away
44.9% (579)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Cozens
MacKinnon
P1
46.5%
45.3%
P2
46.5%
48.5%
P3
44.2%
45.0%
OT
22.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 04:09 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 19:07 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 17:25 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 17:08 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 12:23 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 08:16 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 1 | 05:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |