Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 52.9% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 53.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 50.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Cozens
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Cozens
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Cozens
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (606)
50.0% (992)
+2.6%
Power Play
58.5% (94)
64.9% (148)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
34.4% (32)
-1.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Cozens is 52.3% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Cozens shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Cozens
MacKinnon
Home
54.1% (375)
53.3% (591)
Away
52.3% (331)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Cozens
MacKinnon
P1
55.8%
49.9%
P2
50.6%
53.2%
P3
53.7%
50.8%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.7%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 16:48 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |