Scouting Report
Dylan Cozens holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Cozens wins 44.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 48.4% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 66.9%
Defensive zone
Cozens 59.1%
Neutral zone
Cozens 74.7%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
Cozens
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Cozens
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
1
0
Cozens
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cozens
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (859)
44.7% (1,053)
+4.7%
Power Play
49.5% (186)
36.8% (95)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (129)
65.0% (20)
-25.5%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Cozens is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (319).
Cozens shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
Home / Away
Cozens
MacKinnon
Home
49.0% (600)
49.4% (553)
Away
47.6% (574)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Cozens
MacKinnon
P1
46.5%
45.3%
P2
52.9%
42.7%
P3
45.2%
45.1%
OT
53.8%
46.2%
Final 5 min
45.1%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
48.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 09:47 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 11:53 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 2 | 03:06 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |