Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tuch wins 40.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 44.1% vs Larkin 54.2% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tuch 59.6%
Defensive zone
Tuch 60.5%
Neutral zone
Tuch 63.5%
Result
Alex Tuch favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Tuch
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tuch
Larkin
Last 8: Tuch 3-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Tuch
Larkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tuch
2
1
Tuch
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Tuch
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
39.6% (111)
52.6% (1,117)
-13.0%
Power Play
30.8% (26)
60.7% (305)
-29.9%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (51)
55.9% (177)
-6.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +29.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tuch is 40.5% vs left-shot opponents (158).
Tuch shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Tuch
Larkin
Home
47.1% (102)
54.7% (783)
Away
33.7% (86)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Tuch
Larkin
P1
41.5%
55.9%
P2
43.3%
56.1%
P3
37.5%
51.1%
Final 5 min
39.5%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
41.0%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Alex Tuch |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 08:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Alex Tuch |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 14:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 13:52 | Neutral | Alex Tuch |