Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.6% vs 52.3%). Look for Lizotte on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Lizotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 51.3% vs Larkin 52.1% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 76.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 65.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 62.3%
37.7%
62.3%
Lizotte
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Lizotte
Larkin
Last 6: Lizotte 5-1 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lizotte
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
4
0
Lizotte
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (534)
51.8% (903)
-0.5%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
56.0% (225)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (55)
47.4% (76)
+3.5%
On power play, Lizotte has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Lizotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Lizotte shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Larkin
Home
52.5% (326)
55.6% (662)
Away
50.5% (281)
48.3% (542)
By Period
Lizotte
Larkin
P1
51.4%
49.9%
P2
56.3%
52.7%
P3
46.1%
53.0%
Final 5 min
49.2%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
51.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 14:17 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:09 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 05:42 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 2 | 13:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 8, 2022 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |