Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Larkin 52.1% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 64.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Nelson
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Nelson
Larkin
Last 6: Nelson 0-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Nelson
Larkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
4
Nelson
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Nelson
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
51.8% (903)
-1.9%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
56.0% (225)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
47.4% (76)
-18.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Home / Away
Nelson
Larkin
Home
49.8% (458)
55.6% (662)
Away
49.0% (506)
48.3% (542)
By Period
Nelson
Larkin
P1
50.1%
49.9%
P2
45.4%
52.7%
P3
52.7%
53.0%
OT
33.3%
68.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 08:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 18:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 14:57 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 02:11 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |