Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Larkin 52.4% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 76.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 72.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 71.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 73.4%
73.4%
26.6%
McDavid
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
McDavid
Larkin
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
McDavid
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
4
McDavid
Larkin
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
McDavid
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
51.7% (878)
-4.2%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
58.5% (246)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
48.2% (166)
-1.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
McDavid
Larkin
Home
50.2% (400)
52.4% (647)
Away
44.7% (365)
52.7% (643)
By Period
McDavid
Larkin
P1
47.5%
52.2%
P2
48.6%
53.1%
P3
46.7%
51.7%
OT
33.3%
61.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 09:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 01:17 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |