Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 55.2%). Look for Lindholm on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Lindholm 54.9% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 17-13 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 56.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 59.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 57.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Larkin
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
17
(30 meetings)
13
17
Larkin
Lindholm
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Larkin
Lindholm
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
6
9
Larkin
Lindholm
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
3
Larkin
Lindholm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
54.9% (937)
-2.3%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
60.4% (265)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
49.4% (172)
+6.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Lindholm is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,115).
Home / Away
Larkin
Lindholm
Home
54.7% (783)
54.4% (688)
Away
54.3% (816)
56.1% (686)
By Period
Larkin
Lindholm
P1
55.9%
57.2%
P2
56.1%
54.3%
P3
51.1%
54.2%
OT
66.7%
54.5%
Final 5 min
51.8%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 19:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:55 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:19 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:06 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 3, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 18:45 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 18:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 14:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 11:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 18:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |