Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Lindholm 54.8% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Lindholm 59.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Larkin
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
9
(20 meetings)
11
9
Larkin
Lindholm
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Lindholm
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
4
5
Larkin
Lindholm
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
1
Larkin
Lindholm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
54.4% (722)
-2.7%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
62.2% (164)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
49.4% (83)
-1.2%
On power play, Lindholm has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Lindholm is 57.8% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Home / Away
Larkin
Lindholm
Home
52.4% (647)
55.8% (541)
Away
52.7% (643)
54.7% (428)
By Period
Larkin
Lindholm
P1
52.2%
54.8%
P2
53.1%
55.7%
P3
51.7%
55.6%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 10:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:48 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 12:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:11 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 10:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:52 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 04:04 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:24 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |