Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.4% vs 54.8%). Look for Haula on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Haula shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Haula 54.3% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 64.0%
Defensive zone
Haula 65.0%
Neutral zone
Haula 57.0%
Result
Erik Haula favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Larkin
Haula
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Larkin
Haula
Last 7: Larkin 3-4 Haula
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Haula
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Haula
1
2
Larkin
Haula
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Haula
1
2
Larkin
Haula
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Haula
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
57.6% (684)
-1.7%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
46.0% (63)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
45.5% (145)
+0.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Haula shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Haula is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (604).
Home / Away
Larkin
Haula
Home
56.0% (654)
56.3% (449)
Away
54.8% (639)
53.3% (443)
By Period
Larkin
Haula
P1
54.4%
58.4%
P2
55.9%
54.9%
P3
55.2%
52.0%
OT
64.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Haula
54.0%▲
48.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 16:58 | Neutral | Erik Haula |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 19:40 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 19:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Erik Haula |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Erik Haula |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 17:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 16:48 | Neutral | Erik Haula |