Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +19.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Hughes 37.9% (+19.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 81.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 96.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 89.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 86.3%
86.3%
13.7%
Larkin
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Larkin
Hughes
Last 5: Larkin 4-1 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Hughes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Hughes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Hughes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
34.9% (444)
+18.7%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
50.0% (14)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
33.3% (6)
+15.4%
On even strength, Larkin has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Hughes is 35.4% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hughes
Home
56.6% (700)
37.4% (235)
Away
52.1% (655)
33.2% (229)
By Period
Larkin
Hughes
P1
55.4%
37.1%
P2
54.7%
33.7%
P3
52.7%
34.8%
OT
59.1%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
32.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 06:49 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 03:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 01:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |