Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +16.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Hughes 39.2% (+16.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 76.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 95.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 93.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 89.6%
89.6%
10.4%
Larkin
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Larkin
Hughes
Last 8: Larkin 6-2 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Hughes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Hughes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Hughes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
37.9% (623)
+14.7%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
33.3% (33)
+27.4%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
36.4% (11)
+19.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hughes
Home
54.7% (783)
36.6% (314)
Away
54.3% (816)
38.5% (353)
By Period
Larkin
Hughes
P1
55.9%
36.4%
P2
56.1%
35.6%
P3
51.1%
41.8%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
36.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 16:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 10:10 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |