Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +18.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Hughes 40.3% (+18.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 53.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 89.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 86.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 70.9%
70.9%
29.1%
Larkin
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Larkin
Hughes
Last 8: Larkin 5-3 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
3
Larkin
Hughes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Hughes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Hughes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
35.6% (281)
+20.3%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
50.0% (36)
+7.4%
On even strength, Larkin has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Hughes is 35.0% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hughes
Home
56.0% (654)
38.4% (198)
Away
54.8% (639)
35.3% (119)
By Period
Larkin
Hughes
P1
54.4%
44.3%
P2
55.9%
34.2%
P3
55.2%
34.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 17:01 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 13:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 10:39 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 08:09 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 03:29 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 13:55 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 14:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |