Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Guentzel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Guentzel 46.9% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 75.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 95.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 84.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 95.8%
95.8%
4.2%
Larkin
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Larkin
Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Guentzel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
46.1% (256)
+6.5%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
47.5% (122)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
16.7% (6)
+39.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +39.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Guentzel is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (248).
Home / Away
Larkin
Guentzel
Home
54.7% (783)
49.3% (201)
Away
54.3% (816)
42.6% (183)
By Period
Larkin
Guentzel
P1
55.9%
49.6%
P2
56.1%
45.6%
P3
51.1%
41.6%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |