Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Guentzel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Guentzel 46.3% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 73.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 98.1%
Neutral zone
Larkin 88.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 89.7%
89.7%
10.3%
Larkin
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Larkin
Guentzel
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
5
Larkin
Guentzel
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
10
0
Larkin
Guentzel
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Guentzel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
46.3% (685)
+5.4%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
45.7% (291)
+12.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
42.9% (42)
+7.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Guentzel is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Home / Away
Larkin
Guentzel
Home
54.0% (6,238)
48.3% (544)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
43.2% (474)
By Period
Larkin
Guentzel
P1
52.7%
47.8%
P2
53.1%
45.2%
P3
52.1%
45.3%
OT
58.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 17:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:21 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 1 | 05:27 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 08:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 28, 2022 | OT | 02:24 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 13, 2018 | 2 | 05:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 13, 2018 | 2 | 03:28 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 13, 2018 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |