Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Guentzel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Guentzel 47.4% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 58.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 89.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 79.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 81.0%
81.0%
19.0%
Larkin
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Larkin
Guentzel
Last 7: Larkin 5-2 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
2
Larkin
Guentzel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
Guentzel
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
49.0% (200)
+2.7%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
42.3% (111)
+16.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
45.8% (24)
+2.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Guentzel is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Larkin
Guentzel
Home
52.4% (647)
48.8% (166)
Away
52.7% (643)
44.4% (169)
By Period
Larkin
Guentzel
P1
52.2%
46.7%
P2
53.1%
48.5%
P3
51.7%
44.3%
OT
61.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
55.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Guentzel
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 17:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:21 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 1 | 05:27 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |