Dylan Larkin vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Pageau 56.7% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 68.8%
Defensive zone
Pageau 67.1%
Neutral zone
Pageau 58.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Larkin
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Larkin
Pageau
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
1
Larkin
Pageau
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Pageau
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
4
Larkin
Pageau
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
58.8% (889)
-5.2%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
58.2% (182)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
48.6% (185)
+0.1%
On even strength, Pageau has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. Pageau is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Home / Away
Larkin
Pageau
Home
56.6% (700)
59.0% (595)
Away
52.1% (655)
55.7% (661)
By Period
Larkin
Pageau
P1
55.4%
58.9%
P2
54.7%
57.9%
P3
52.7%
55.6%
OT
59.1%
44.4%
Final 5 min
57.0%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
57.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 16:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 11:15 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 04:47 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 19:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 16:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 01:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 16:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 05:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |