Dylan Larkin vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.4% vs 55.4%). Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Pageau 55.0% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 73.9%
Defensive zone
Pageau 66.2%
Neutral zone
Pageau 53.3%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Larkin
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Larkin
Pageau
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Pageau
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
6
Larkin
Pageau
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
2
Larkin
Pageau
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
57.1% (905)
-1.2%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
55.2% (116)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
48.0% (204)
-1.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Home / Away
Larkin
Pageau
Home
56.0% (654)
57.0% (618)
Away
54.8% (639)
53.9% (607)
By Period
Larkin
Pageau
P1
54.4%
54.4%
P2
55.9%
61.0%
P3
55.2%
51.0%
OT
64.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 02:16 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 02:08 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 11:57 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 11:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 17:41 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 15:49 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:21 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 05:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 17:38 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |