Dylan Larkin vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 57 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Pageau 54.8% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 85-50 in 135 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 83.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 68.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 67.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 73.1%
73.1%
26.9%
Larkin
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
85
(135 meetings)
50
85
Larkin
Pageau
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
19
25
Larkin
Pageau
44 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
17
40
Larkin
Pageau
57 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
14
20
Larkin
Pageau
34 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
55.7% (9,486)
-4.0%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
57.0% (1,002)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
49.6% (2,069)
+0.6%
On even strength, Pageau has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Home / Away
Larkin
Pageau
Home
54.0% (6,238)
56.3% (6,214)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
53.4% (6,343)
By Period
Larkin
Pageau
P1
52.7%
54.6%
P2
53.1%
56.3%
P3
52.1%
53.5%
OT
58.4%
54.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:04 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 01:20 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:43 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:25 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:10 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:06 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 07:49 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 07:43 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 10:07 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 17:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |