Dylan Larkin vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Pageau 58.7% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 66.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 68.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 63.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 67.5%
67.5%
32.5%
Larkin
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Larkin
Pageau
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
8
Larkin
Pageau
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
2
Larkin
Pageau
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
59.6% (711)
-7.0%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
64.0% (114)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
56.4% (163)
-0.5%
On even strength, Pageau has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Pageau is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (763).
Home / Away
Larkin
Pageau
Home
54.7% (783)
59.3% (506)
Away
54.3% (816)
60.0% (482)
By Period
Larkin
Pageau
P1
55.9%
56.8%
P2
56.1%
64.4%
P3
51.1%
56.9%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
61.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 07:49 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 07:43 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 10:07 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 17:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 19:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 19:45 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:42 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 09:39 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 19:59 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 01:17 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |