Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 53.7%). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Eller 53.3% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 71.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 68.0%
Neutral zone
Eller 51.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Larkin
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Larkin
Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
2
Larkin
Eller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
53.8% (865)
-0.2%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
57.1% (21)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
52.6% (137)
-3.9%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Eller is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (682).
Home / Away
Larkin
Eller
Home
56.6% (700)
56.4% (486)
Away
52.1% (655)
51.2% (537)
By Period
Larkin
Eller
P1
55.4%
55.1%
P2
54.7%
55.3%
P3
52.7%
51.7%
OT
59.1%
27.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 19:08 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 13:15 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 15:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |