Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 23 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Eller 50.5% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 35-23 in 58 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 80.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 51.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 61.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Larkin
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
23
(58 meetings)
35
23
Larkin
Eller
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
19
4
Larkin
Eller
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
5
15
Larkin
Eller
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
11
4
Larkin
Eller
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
51.1% (10,296)
+0.6%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
52.8% (621)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
46.7% (1,751)
+3.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Home / Away
Larkin
Eller
Home
54.0% (6,238)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Larkin
Eller
P1
52.7%
51.2%
P2
53.1%
50.1%
P3
52.1%
50.2%
OT
58.4%
56.7%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 16:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 10:44 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 02:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 10:17 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 01:42 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 15:02 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:47 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 04:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 15:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 15:52 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 12:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 02:40 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 08:16 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 19:08 | Defensive | Lars Eller |