Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Eller 52.0% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 88.6%
Defensive zone
Eller 63.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 66.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Larkin
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Larkin
Eller
Last 7: Larkin 5-2 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Eller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Larkin
Eller
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
1
Larkin
Eller
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
52.8% (742)
+3.1%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
67.6% (34)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
46.2% (156)
+0.0%
On power play, Eller has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
Larkin
Eller
Home
56.0% (654)
54.5% (448)
Away
54.8% (639)
50.2% (484)
By Period
Larkin
Eller
P1
54.4%
52.8%
P2
55.9%
50.9%
P3
55.2%
53.4%
OT
64.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 15:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 15:52 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 12:56 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 02:40 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 08:16 | Neutral | Lars Eller |