Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Eller 51.9% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 81.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 57.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Larkin
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Larkin
Eller
Last 9: Larkin 6-3 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Eller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Eller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
52.8% (650)
-0.2%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
69.2% (13)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
45.5% (88)
+10.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Eller is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Larkin
Eller
Home
54.7% (783)
52.6% (340)
Away
54.3% (816)
51.8% (411)
By Period
Larkin
Eller
P1
55.9%
52.4%
P2
56.1%
54.1%
P3
51.1%
50.0%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 02:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 10:17 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 01:42 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 15:02 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:47 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 04:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |